The State of Traditional Publishing
In this essay, I will....
Let’s buckle up. This substack is born from conversations and whispers that have been inundating my group chats and DMs for months now—THE STATE OF TRADITIONAL PUBLISHING. Or rather, the perceived state of traditional publishing from myself, and other fellow authors who have been on submission for a hot minute. A mere State of the Union, as an author on the trad pub train, if you will.
**please note, this is my opinion formed by my own experiences and research. This is not scientific fact. Your mileage (and opinions) and experiences may vary.
I am not telling anyone what to do, and I am not a lawyer, agent, editor, or offering legal or life advice—simply food for thought and my own observations**
First, you need a little bit of background on my writing journey. I started writing the book I would query and get representation with in December of 2022. At that time, and into 2023 when I began querying, the official advice was “if you want your book in bookstores, you have to go trad pub, and editors and agents absolutely will not consider a self-published book.”
Self publishing was already a bustling industry in 2022. Kindle Unlimited was popping thanks to Covid and the lockdowns, and I had several friends with successful books/careers self publishing. I was not unaware of self publishing. In fact, at the time, I was the only one in my small writing community to go after traditional publishing.
Also worth noting, and going back to the advice about querying a self-published book, at that time in 2022-2023, self pub to trad just wasn’t a thing (but was starting to change). I think Nisha J. Tuli had just broken out and landed her deal, and it was openly praised as a rare opportunity. The general consensus was still that publishers wanted previously unpublished books.
Now? In 2025? The market has shifted. Several authors on the bestseller lists are self-pub authors picked up by trad pub (Lyla Sage, BK Borrison, SenLinYu, Elsie Silver, Callie Hart, Lauren Roberts, Devney Perry, etc). I’ve seen rejections from editors and wishlists citing “wanting authors with bigger platforms” or “looking for successful self-published” authors.
In fact, last week, a Big 5 publisher announced a new romance imprint. In their splashy announcement, they also revealed the first four books coming out. Every single one was a previously self-published title.
(you can read the announcement article here: CLICK THIS LINK)
Please note, I am not shading or digging at any of those authors. Get that bag, sis. Secure that deal.
What I am saying is that as authors who went the full trad route (queried, landed an agent, now on submission), we need to consider the shifting market. Yes, debuts are still getting deals. Yes, you can still get purchased without self-publishing or a platform. However, we are seeing more and more frequent purchases and searches for authors with established self-published series and large platforms or audiences on social media.
It’s even highlighted in the article on The Walrus that made a big splash in the writing community last week:
“Despite widespread conversations in 2020 around equity in publishing, he believes we’re witnessing a general retrenchment in the industry. Decision makers are adopting an even more conservative stance, which steers them toward acquiring books from people who already have built-in audiences—like celebrities or influencers. Such retrenchment is also a labour issue. Publishing is an industry with stagnant salaries, considerable instability, and high turnover. “It’s hard to invest in authors when the people who are working on the books are not being invested in,” says the Big Five editor. He may not have the luxury of nurturing a writer across books, as much as he may want to. The more pressing issue can be, as he puts it, “I need to make a profit so I don’t get fired from this job.”
– “The Publishing Industry Has a Gambling Problem,” by Tajja Isen in The Walrus Article
I won’t tell you that my friends and I made a whole spreadsheet tracking popular and bestselling authors in the romance/romantasy space and whether they started as trad pub or self-pub…and that over 50% of them started as self-published authors. Do with that what you will.
I’ll also amend, it takes on average 3-5 books for an author to “break out,” and self-published authors are able to do that quickly, on their own dime**, unlike trad pub which will cripple debut authors from a second or third book based on their debut sales. The Walrus article also highlights the sophomore novel issue in trad pub right now. You really should read it.
**Please know, I’m not belittling self-pub like it’s easy. It’s tremendous work to fund self-publishing, market, break-out and pull the numbers needed to attract a trad pub deal (my agent Cathie Armstrong is doing a substack later this week on “successful self-publishing” from the agent side). There’s still risks in self-publishing, and just as many authors fail at self-publishing as they do at trad. Penn Cole gives insight as a self-pub to trad author below:
It’s important to be informed and keep a pulse point on what’s happening. I’m not saying you will never, ever, ever sell a trad debut. I am not pitting indie authors versus trad authors.
I am saying, you can make a choice for yourself about the best route for your career, and that self-publishing as a track to a trad deal is more reachable than ever before. I am saying it’s important to keep up with the shifting changes of an industry.
Maybe you sub a book and it doesn’t sell in a year, so you decide to self-publish it instead.
Maybe you decide to start building a social media platform as a bargaining factor for being on submission to editors.
Maybe you decide to keep on the same trad track, but with the knowledge that you’re now also competing against successful self-published authors as well as agented authors.
The pool of books being sent to editors has grown, and the stats are still against us. An agent shared that the chances of getting published is 4/1200 per editor. Aka SLIM.
Much like with medical choices, I simply want authors to make decisions with informed consent.
The advice some of us received ~ 2022 has changed. Editors are looking at and buying self published titles (that are doing well, have platforms, etc).
Anywho.
The horrors persist, and so do I ;)
Happy Publishing!
-K
And hey, if you’ve made it this far, I’m Kelly, the author of a few different romance authors. My latest, STEAL IT WITH A KISS is on submission to editors now through my agent Cathie Armstrong.
If you’re into (and maybe an editor looking to buy) a gender-swapped Bonnie & Clyde adventure romcom (that’s a little unhinged, and the FMC has a pet possum), I’ve got a book for you ;)
When a self-proclaimed trailer park beauty queen impulsively robs a bank to pay for her grandmother’s debts, she doesn’t expect the teller to be her straight-laced ex-boyfriend. Determined to stay incognito, she kidnaps him & forces him along her hare-brained escape. If they make it to the border, they may get away with more than just a literal felony—but another chance at a love story that should be (maybe, actually is) criminal.
Thanks for the great article. My takeaway more broadly is that it sounds like the traditional publishing model is **breaking**.
If an agent who can only take on 4 four authors a year on average is the ONLY path to publication, then that is like having an economy tied to physical gold as money. The dam has clearly been breached - traditional publishing neither has the **capacity** handle the volume of quality authors appearing from the digital woodwork nor can they contain them.
The question they need to ask: who needs whom? If an author can build a following of 100,000 fans online, sell directly and earn 10X more per book, what is the incentive to sign away publishing rights in exchange for 60p per sale?
Your book sounds great, definitely something I would read!
I stumbled across this post in my feed and am glad I did. I’ve been in talks with an agent since June after sending a sample of my business non-fiction manuscript to and few literary agents. He hasn’t signed me yet, but has advised me to build my platform; primarily LinkedIn. He said to get to a follower count of 30K (!) and he would sign me (I have 2K), but at that point, wouldn’t I be better off self-publishing? And how long does it take to get to 30K followers? So many things for me to figure out, but I really found this article helpful; it’s giving me more to think about.